New York Times' Analysis June 30

from today's New York Times

Bill Keller, the executive editor of The New York Times, who recently visited Iran and filed several stories on Iran’s contested vote and its aftermath is among the Times staffers answering readers’ questions.

Will Protest Movements Have an Effect?

Question: I would like to know if you think this green movement will lead to regime change?

Bill Keller: I’ll gladly defer to my colleagues who have spent far more time in Iran than I have, although I trust all of us will shy away from making predictions. One thing that struck me forcefully, though, as a novice watching the country move from pre-election euphoria to post-election outrage and repression, was that for Iranians themselves this month has been an eye-opening look behind a thick curtain. They have seen prominent figures in the modern history of Iran, veterans of the Islamic revolution, quarreling fiercely among themselves. They have seen the supreme leader, for the most part an unchallenged voice of civic and religious orthodoxy, openly (if, for the most part, subtly) challenged. They have seen their elections, which are designed to confer a gloss of popular legitimacy on theocratic power, derided as fraudulent. They have seen a significant cohort of their compatriots take to the streets. They have flocked to alternative information sources — foreign TV broadcasts, the Web, social networks.
The day before the election we interviewed a reformist presidential candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, and asked what would happen if the opposition lost. He said he couldn’t predict whether the popular energy unleashed by the electoral campaign would continue or whether the nation would “go into a coma.” Indeed, the educated middle class that provided much of the impetus for change does have a history of slipping into disenchantment and disengagement after defeat. Many of them deliberately sat out the election that brought Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power in 2005. But I wonder whether an experience like the one Iran is going through now cannot help having an eventual corrosive effect on the regime itself.

Mousavi's letter

Mousavi remains defiant

By MUHAMMAD SAHIMI in Los Angeles 28 June 2009
from: TEHRAN BUREAU

Iran’s Guardian Council — the Constitutional body that vets the candidates and certifies the validity of the elections — has formed a special committee to look into the irregularities of the presidential election, and to recount 10 percent of the votes. It has invited the candidates to introduce a special representative, so that the recounting can take place. But in a letter to the Guardian Council, Mir Hossein Mousavi, the main reformist candidate, insisted that the entire election process was fraught with numerous violations of important articles of Iran’s election laws and, therefore, there was no way to rectify the situation other than annulment of the election and holding a new one. In his letter, Mousavi divides all the violations of the government and the Interior Ministry, which supervises the elections, into four categories, stating:



Based on what I already informed the Council about [in Mr. Mousavi’s previous letters], the extent and depth of the unlawful acts [of the government] in four distinct categories, namely, The election campaigns, and what the government did prior to Election Day; The collection of the votes [on June 12] and their enumeration; Summarizing the results and announcing them [and], What has taken place after announcing the results, are such that there is no remedy for them other than annulment of the entire election and holding a new one. As examples, I point out certain violations and unlawful acts that are recognized by Article 33 of the laws of presidential elections as violations that influence the overall result of the elections and, therefore, leave no choice but annulment of the elections:

Explicit and widespread violation of Article 68 of the elction laws that forbids the use of public resources for, and the intervention of the cabinet members, senior officials, governor-generals, and managers in favor of the candidate of the establishment [President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad].

Violation of the neutrality of the Voice and Visage [Seda va Sima: National Iranian Radio and Television Network], and making unfounded accusations [against the reformist candidates] by that organ, the unlawful nature of some of which has also been confirmed by Iran’s Chief Justice [Ghorbanali Dorri Najafabadi], as well as widespread campaign and propaganda by governmental organizations, such as IRNA [Iran’s official news agency], newspapers, and websites in favor of the establishment’s candidate.

Widespread violations of Article 33 of the presidential election laws: buying votes by distributing the so-called “justice stocks and shares” and cash among the peasants. Threatening, as well as bribing by cash, members of the city councils, influential people, etc.

Lack of confidence in the ballot boxes being empty before they were sealed [before voting], disappearance of the voting forms and ballot boxes after voting, due to the fact that [our] monitors had been barred from being present at the voting places, as well as based on reports that have been received.

Denying people’s rights to vote by limiting the hours of voting, and many other violations, such as lack of voting forms at the voting locations.

Fraud in voting by not having enough voting forms at voting places, even though 12 million additional forms [on top of the 47 million needed for the number of eligible voters] had already been printed, and printing of an additional 2.5 million forms (and perhaps more) that had no official serial numbers had also been authorized by a member of the Council. Such violations can undoubtedly be proven by comparing the completed voting forms with the information in the Information Bank [that the government keeps of all the Iranian people].

“Recommendation” to people by the officials working at voting places for whom they should vote, and selecting such officials and monitors from amongst the ranks of the establishment candidate.

Intimidating the voters and supporters of the reformist candidates in the week before the election, and attacking their campaign headquarters and their supporters in the legal gathering and rallies around the country.

Setting many limitations for the [reformist] candidates’ monitors to attend the meetings of the executive committees [that supervise the elections], be present at the centers where the votes were collected and counted, as well as at a significant number of voting locations.

Cutting off, on the voting day, all means of mass communications, such as SMS and cell phones, which are used for monitoring the elections and reporting unlawful acts to my campaign headquarters, so that we could pursue the legal channels to stop them.

Collecting the votes in a way that could not be monitored, and announcing the results in an “engineered” way (while, even before announcing the results by the Interior Ministry, the websites that are linked with the government, the Sepaah [the Revolutionary Guards], and [the daily] Kayhan [the mouthpiece of the hard-liners] had already announced the results).

Widespread intervention in the elections by some parts of the armed forces prior and during the elections, which is against the explicit order of the Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who had forbidden the military from intervention in political affairs].

The existence of more 170 voting districts [out of a total of 368] in which the percentage of the votes cast was between 95% and 140% of the total number of eligible voters.

Attacking my [Mr. Mousavi’s] campaign headquarters throughout the country, shutting down my central campaign headquarter [in Tehran], and arresting the campaign chairman and its active members, which disrupted our work for collecting information and documents on the violations of the election law.

The letters continues to insist that the aforementioned violations of the election laws cannot be remedied by a partial recounting of the votes. It also casts doubt on whether the special committee can, in fact, be trusted:

All the above items indicate the existence of prior planning and organization for violating the election law. Since the Guardian Council has already stated that investigating some of the violations is beyond its authority, and because some of the violations were committed by the Interior Minister [Sadegh Mahsouli], other senior officials in the Ministry, and some members of the Guardian Council who violated the principle of neutrality, an impartial investigation of the violations cannot be done by the Guardian Council, as well as any committee that is appointed by the Council. Indeed, some members of the committee were not neutral in the elections, and have stated their positions before the investigation has been conducted and, therefore, cannot contribute to removing the public’s doubts about the elections.

Therefore, I [Mr. Mousavi] insist once again that the best way of addressing the issue and regaining the nation’s trust in the election process is by annulling the election and appointing a national adjudicating team that can be trusted by the public and its verdict can be accepted by it. Thus, I suggest that the issue should be referred to an independent legal team trusted by all the candidates and the religious leaders.

The special committee that the Guardian Council has formed consists of former Foreign Minister Dr. Ali Akbar Velayati; former speaker of the Majles (parliament) Gholamali Haddad Aadel; Chief Justice [and former Minister of Intelligence] Ghorbanali Dorri Najafabadi; Mohammad Hassan Aboutorabi, a conservative Majles deputy and a deputy Speaker; Mohammad Hassan Rahimiyan, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s special representative in the Shahid [martyr] Foundation; and Goudarz Eftekhar Jahromi, a legal scholar, university professor, and former member of the Guardian Council. Of these, Dr. Valayati has criticized Mr. Mousavi for calling for the annulment of the election. Mr. Haddad Aadel [whose daughter is married to a son of Ayatollah Khamenei] supported the candidacy of Mr. Ahmadinejad for a second term, and Mr. Rahimiyan has stated that, “those who could not get people’s votes [meaning Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Mahdi Karroubi, the second reformist candidate], instead of pursuing the matter through legal channels, resorted to alternative ways that have only made our enemies happy,” hence stating his opposition to mass demonstrations against the rigged elections. It should also be noted that Mr. Karroubi has stated that, in order for his representative to participate in the work of the special committee, two members of the committee who are not considered neutral must be replaced by others, but has not specified which two.

Copyright © 2009 Tehran Bureau

People in TwittIran

The heroes of my Twitter World are of course those that live and fight and suffer in Iran. They give their names quite openly, one can find many of them in a blog and follow them on Twitter.

Over a long day on Twitter-duty they sometimes share some personal things – an exam coming close, problems with computers, anger about some people they dislike. There is a revolution going on but nevertheless a day’s routine engrosses everybody. After a while you think that you know them personally.

Apart from theme there is a number of people standing by and watching, like me. It is a compassionate watch, especially with people like Omid Nouripor, a German with an Iranian background. He is member of our Parliament in Berlin, in a noisy party (Green) that I would normally not vote for. Nevertheless I like his heartfelt comments and re-tweets and the way he often adds a #prayforthem to it.

In Germany people with a “Migrationshintergrund” (migration background) are mainly welcomed by those parties tending to the left. Those to the right (which I normally vote for) rather keep them at a distance, which is a mistake and leaves me sometimes standing alone and freeze in conservative circles.

Every movement has at least one beauty to look at. In TwitterIran it is Lily Mazahery from Washington D.C. Her Twitter account had her picture taken from behind, showing her classic profile and her lovely shoulders. Unfortunately Twitter would overlay the shoulder part with text, so for a long time you only could guess how it looked. Only when the internet was slow the shoulders would appear for a second. That was the only time you would bless a slow internet.

Now she changed the size of the photo and you see shoulders and all immediately, but in a much smaller seize. To my fortunate readers here I proudly present the old, big shot.

Lily is in Wikipedia, she is reported about in the New York Times and sometimes she is on TV in the United States. She is a lawyer and a Human Rights Activist, as that profession is called. I am sure TwitterIran would make her the next Shabanu if she would only accept it (which I doubt, she doesn't sound too much monarchist).

Also on TV and active behind the political scene is my dear Joshua Trevino from California. In my imagination he is my closest ally and friend – a little older than the students, a conservative, a man in business, all like me. Nevertheless I disagree with his Conservativism in the same way I disagree with another American friend’s Liberalism.

Both stick to the crazy believe that every change of government in the USA invents the country completely new. The reality is that America is only gradually adjusted from time to time and in the meantime busy to keep all their trade partners on he losing side. I say that although I love almost no other country in the world more than the United States. If they only could give up borrowing money from the Chinese and changing it into foul derivative papers that make you bankrupt within weeks after you have faithfully bought it.

Honestly, this of course is exaggerated. I wish I could write half as good English as Joshua does. Sometimes he is so brilliant that I don’t even get his wit. Sorry for the small photo, his website with bigger photos is under attack right at the moment. He obviously has enemies. If it was the Iranian Secret Service it would surely make all of us proud.

I love you all!*


* After writing down this phrase I see that Michael Jackson used it, yes he passed away last night, and yes, it is almost forbidden in TwitterIran to let oneself be distracted by this event. Nevertheless also here every second tweet has MJ in it.

From Iran, more matter (II)

Here is Robert D. Kaplan in an article for the Los Angeles Times. I found it in the Turkish Newspaper "Todays Zaman" and thought it written by a Turk while reading it. The article has a lot of information about Sunnites and Shiites and the postive role a moderate islamic regime in Tehran could play.

From Iran, more matter

Islam and democracy are incompatible is the contrast to Mousavi's letter. It is quoted in an article of the New York Times about Ahmadinejad (dated June 24):

At the same time, Ayatollah Muhammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, Mr. Ahmadinejad’s spiritual mentor, runs three powerful educational institutions in the holy city of Qum, all spun off from the Haqqani seminary, which teaches that Islam and democracy are incompatible.

As another contrast to Mousavi's letter here is a story that is circulating in the web, too. It is more critical with traditional Islam and openly says that the West is very like the Paradise.

The story is called Battle of The Melody. The full text is in a blog that is run by somebody that calls him- or herself Kafirtiti.

It is also in Infidel Blogger's Alliance where Khomeini is quoted as saying





An Islamic regime must be serious in every field. There are no jokes in Islam. There is no humour in Islam. There is no fun in Islam.

Here is a small part of Battle of The Melody:

2. The West had ships that carried goods from hither to thither. They created large birds of steel, that could fly them to and fro, over a great many miles. The West also had music, beautiful music, played skilfully by well-trained musicians. And many other ways to entertain themselves.
3. Compared to the House of Allah and his prophet, may wasps nest in his stomach for eternity, the West was very like the Paradise written in their holy book, which told of Virgins, and rivers of wine and endless pleasures, if the believers would but die and kill for Allah.
4. And it made the lawless savages angry, because they must die and kill in order to attain the very Paradise which already was in the West!
5. And so it came to pass, that the Sons of Allah would go out from their House, and travel to the West.

From Iran, and not to be forgotten

Some words and pictures that went around the world after the elections in Iran (on June 12, 2009) should not be forgotten. Around that day I happened to have my first experiments with Twitter. Here the stream of disturbing news did not end. It flew from a country where the government turned violent against it's own people - people obviously with no extreme ideas or radical intentions.

I would like to remember the dramatic last tweets from Persiankiwi. I read it on my computer and later found it printed out in a blog that collects words and images like my blog does.

Persiankiwi blogged the following on June 24, around noon local time. There were no new tweets from him or her since then.


just in from Baharestan Sq - situation today is terrible - they beat the ppls like animals -I see many ppl with broken arms/legs/heads - blood everywhere - pepper gas like war -they were waiting for us - they all have guns and riot uniforms - it was like a mouse trap - ppl being shot like animalssaw 7/8 militia beating one woman with baton on ground - she had no defense nothing - #Iranelection sure that she is deadso many ppl arrested - young & old - they take ppl away -ppl run into alleys and militia standing there waiting - from 2 sides they attack ppl in middle of alleysall shops was closed - nowhere to go - they follow ppls with helicopters - smoke and fire is everywherephone line was cut and we lost internet - #Iranelection - getting more difficult to log into net -rumour they are tracking high use of phone lines to find internet users - must move from here now - #Iranelection - reports of street fighting in Vanak Sq, Tajrish sq, Azadi Sq - now - #Iranelection - Sea of Green - Allah Akbarin Baharestan we saw militia with axe choping ppl like meat - blood everywhere - like butcher - Allah Akbar -they catch ppl with mobile - so many killed today - so many injured - Allah Akbar - they take one of usthey pull away the dead into trucks - like factory - no human can do this - we beg Allah for save us -Everybody is under arrest & cant move - Mousavi - Karroubi even rumour Khatami is in house guardwe must go - dont know when we can get internet - they take 1 of us, they will torture and get names - now we must move fast -thank you ppls 4 supporting Sea of Green - pls remember always our martyrs - Allah Akbar - Allah Akbar - Allah AkbarAllah - you are the creator of all and all must return to you - Allah Akbar -

I would also like to keep in mind a touching letter that Mir Hossein Mousavi sent to his followers on June 20. Not everybody likes his faithful comradeship with the late Ayatollah Khomeini. He mentions him frequently in his letter.

But Mousavi says you can preserve your spirituality while living a modern life and, in saying so he reconciles the old religious way with the new secular way that people more and more seem to prefer.

I quote the translation of TehranBroadcast.

In the name of God, Most Gracious, Most Merciful

Surely God commands you to make over trusts to their owners and that when you judge between people you judge with justice [Quran, 4:58]

The honorable and intelligent people of Iran,

These days and nights mark a crucial point in the history of our nation. People ask among themselves and also ask me what we should do and what direction we should take. I see it as my duty to share with you what I believe, to tell you and learn from you, so we would not forget our historical mission and not shrug off the responsibility that the fate of the ages and generations has bestowed upon us. Thirty years ago a revolution took place in our country in the name of Islam; a revolution for freedom, a revolution for reviving the dignity of human beings, a revolution for honesty and righteousness. In these years, particularly when our wise Imam [ayatollah Khomeini] was still alive, huge resources have been spent on strengthening its blessed foundations, may it be lives, material assets and reputations, which has led to valuable achievements. Our society was overwhelmed by a spirituality that we had not experienced before and our people found a new life that was sweet for them, although they went through the hardest of times. What they had achieved was dignity, freedom and the start of a pure life. I am sure that whoever experienced those days will not be satisfied with anything less.
Had we as a people lost something that made us unable to experience such a spiritual atmosphere anymore? I had came [as a candidate for the elections] to say that it is not so; it is not late yet and we are still not far away from that spiritual environment. I had came to show that you can preserve your spirituality while living a modern life. I had came to repeat our Imam’s [ayatollah Khomeini’s] warnings about fundamentalism. I had come to say that diversion from the law would result in dictatorship; to remind that respecting human dignity does not weaken the foundations of the establishment, but strengthens it. I had came to say that people expect their civil servants to be honest and sincere, and that many of our problems arise from lies and dishonesty. I had came to say that under-development, poverty, corruption, and injustice is not our destiny. I had came to invite you once again to the Islamic Revolution as it was, and the Islamic Republic as it should be.

My invitation was not eloquent but the true message of the revolution was so pleasant that it excited the young generation, even through my lame words, a generation that had not experienced those days and found a distance between themselves and that rich heritage. It resulted in scenes similar only to what I had seen in the days of the revolution and holy defense [Iran-Iraq war]. The spontaneous movement chose the color green as the symbol among themselves. I hereby confess that I was the one who followed them in this regard. A generation that is accused to be distant from religious foundations chose "Allah-u Akbar" [God is great], "Help is only from god, and victory is close" [from the Quran], and "ya Hossein" as their slogans, and they used Khomeini’s name to show that the fruits of this blessed tree are similar in all generations. They only came to these by following their own nature. How unfair are those whose petty interests make them ignore this miracle of the Islamic Revolution and call it a "velvet revolution" influenced by foreign entities.

But as you know, we all encountered lies and cheating in our path to achieving the wishes in the hearts of our young and old and a national rebirth; what we had predicted as the eventual result of diverging from the law actually happened in the most explicit manner in the closest of times.
The high turnout in the recent elections was first and foremost the result of efforts in creating hope and trust in people that there will be a suitable response to the management crises and massive social dissatisfactions whose accumulation can undermine the foundations of the revolution and establishment if not addressed properly. If this optimism and trust of the people would not be responded by safeguarding their votes, or if they cannot defend their rights in a peaceful and civil manner, then we will fall in a dangerous path. The responsibility of such circumstances shall be with those who cannot tolerate peaceful reactions.

If the huge volume of rigging and manipulating votes, that has burned away people’s trust, would itself be used as a means to deny the cheating, then the republic essence of the establishment would be undermined and the inconsistency of Islam and democracy would be practically proven. Such an achievement would overjoy two groups; one is those who opposed the Imam from the first years of the revolution and and consider an Islamic government to be a dictatorship of the righteous and wrongfully want to force people into heaven, and the other consists of those who claim to defend the right of the people and see religion and Isalm as an obstacle in achieving democracy. The extraordinary achievement of the late Imam was to nullify both of these curses. I had come to, following the Imam’s path, cancel the efforts of the magicians who had emerged again.

Currently the officials have, by approving what happened in the elections, accepted all responsibility for it. They have set a limit for the extent of the results of any further investigation into the ballots: that it would not result in annulling the elections and would not change the outcome, even though in more than 170 electoral districts, the number of votes is more than the number of eligible voters.

We are asked to follow our complaints through the guardian council. This is while the guardian council has proven not to be impartial in its actions, before, during and after the elections, and the first condition for any kind of judgment is neutrality.

I still strongly believe that a request of annulling the elections is a definite right that we should pursue through a neutral and nationally trusted committee. It should not be dismissed as impossible beforehand. People should not be prevented from any kind of rallies and demonstrations by suggesting the possibility of bloodshed. The national security council should not divert attention from itself when asked about the plain-clothes forces and their role in attacking people, damaging public property, and causing tension in public gatherings, and blame others for the disasters that have taken place.

When I look at this setting, I see it as a preparation for goals beyond imposing an unwanted government upon people, but as a means of imposing a new political lifestyle on the country. As a companion that has seen the beauty of your wave of green presence, I will not allow myself any action that may result in lives being endangered. But I also insist on my strong belief that the elections are invalid, and I will persist on attaining the people’s rights. Despite the limited capabilities and resources that I have access to, I believe that with your motivation and creativity you can continue to pursue your legitimate rights in new civil faces and forms, and achieve them. I assure you that I shall stay by your side. What this brother of yours suggests in seeking these new solutions is not letting liars and cheaters steal your flag in defense of the Islamic establishment, and do not let untrustworthy strangers confiscate the valuable heritage of the Islamic Revolution which is a resource which we have payed for by the blood of you righteous fathers. From now on continue the pursue of you rights with trust in God and hope in the future and reliance on your capabilities, while abiding by the constitution and the principle of non-violence. In this path we are not against the basijis; they are our brothers. We are not against the Revolutionary Guards; they are the safeguards of our revolution and establishment. We are not against the army; they ensure the safety of our national borders. We are not against our sacred establishment and its legal structures. These structures preserve our freedom, liberty and Islamic Republic. We are against lies and diversions and we aim to reform them; a reform that brings us back to the pure principles of the the Islamic Revolution.

We advise the officials to not only allow peaceful demonstrations, based on article 27 of the constitution, but to encourage them, in order to ensure peace and safety in the streets, and to lift the restrictions from the national television so it may stop its insults, and one-sided coverage. They should let the voices turn into arguments, and constructive debates, and be corrected and modified by being expressed in free media, before they turn into shouts. Let the press criticize, report the news as it is and, in short, give people a free environment where they can express their agreements and disagreements. Let those who like to shout "Allah-u Akbar" and do not consider that as disagreement with yourself. Obviously if this happens, there will be no need for having police and armed forces in the streets, and we shall not encounter events that seeing them or hearing about them would break the heart of any one who loves the revolution and the country.

Your brother and companion - Mir Hossein Mousavi